Following its acquisition of Predict Ability Ltd (PAL) in September 2019, Ortec Finance proudly announces the integration of dynamic, climate change-informed disaster and catastrophe modelling into its Climate & ESG Solutions.
Describing this major development, Ton van Welie, CEO of Ortec Finance, explains, “The PAL solution is simply way ahead of the curve. Its algorithm not only enables extreme weather risk and climate-change related impact modelling, it also forecasts the financial impact of climate-related extreme weather events. Ortec Finance is now uniquely positioned to quantify year-on-year and region-by-region exposure to physical climate risk.”
Richard Clarke, PAL’s Director of Research, lists the scope of the technology. “The PAL modelling solution dynamically and numerically provides:
- Analytics data for extreme weather risk by region, peril (e.g. cyclone, drought, flood) and by year (forecast up to 2060)
- Forecasting of year by year losses from the expected direct damage of extreme weather events under different warming pathways (using temperature anomaly scenarios of 1.5C, 2.0C, 4.0C) for all regions
- Event attribution estimations of the proportion of events and associated losses that are attributable to climate change using PAL’s event attribution algorithm
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) impacts (per country/region) arising from direct and indirect disaster loss attributable to climate change.
Clarke expands on the logical impact of the technology: “We are genuinely breaking new ground,” he asserts, “whereby the functionality gives us unprecedented capabilities that enable investment managers to:
- Guide investment decisions with climate-informed physical risk data and insights
- Enhance in-house catastrophe models (P&C, liabilities, etc.) with forward-looking climate scenario information
- Recalculate real estate or mortgage portfolio physical risks based on insights
- Upgrade climate-related physical risk disclosure
- Calibrate carbon pricing measures against the climate change-related impact of carbon emissions.”
“There can be no doubt that our solutions are a game changer in our globally warming world”, Clarke continues.