Enhancing decision making through cyclicality and dynamic asset allocation
Hens Steehouwer discusses on Pension Funds Online how investors can use their understanding of cyclicality to enhance investment decision making.
When I think back to my university education in the 90's, the lectures that really stood out for me were those on time-series analysis and understanding how economies and financial markets move up and down. As a student, keen to learn the ways and wherefores of investing, it was almost an epiphany moment – the realisation that if, as an investor, I could better understand how markets fluctuate, I would be far more equipped to make better investment decisions. For the past two decades, I have stood by that learning and spent most of my career on building, applying and improving models of economies and financial markets.
Education is cyclical
Fast forward to 2017 and I've just returned from an INQUIRE Europe Conference in Switzerland. There, one of the interesting papers that was presented concluded that the vast majority of so called 'anomalies' that have been reported in the literature, actually cannot be replicated. Continue reading...