Improving our standard economic scenario set. Ortec Finance has always been an organisation were the high quality of the services we offer to our customers is paramount. Therefore, we are constantly working to achieve substantive improvements in order to strengthen both your and our processes and to make our solutions even more user friendly. Currently, we are preparing the next step in the field of scenario analysis.
In the course of 2016 Ortec Finance will start using one single scenario set to create realistic projections of assets and liabilities over different horizons. This scenario set comprises both the dynamics and dependencies between variables that are driven by short term movements, but also by longer term developments in the economy. With this scenario set we produce reliable real-world scenarios that describe the uncertain future, including the dynamic relationship between large numbers of variables. This results in a further boost in the quality of our scenarios. The enhanced scenario set enables you to get a realistic view of how various (economic) trends are related. That means you will be able to better assess how risk and return will develop and thereby strengthen the foundation of your decision-making.
Transparent and empirically based
The new single scenario set quantifies the risks of a series of factors and determines how they will develop in the short, medium and long term. Our scenarios have always been based on proven statistical relations between economic variables, but with the new single real-world scenario set they are more comprehensive and more realistic than ever. Moreover our scenarios explicitly account for information that is relevant to the future, but that is not or insufficiently captured in the historical data on which the scenarios are calibrated. Think, for example, of the Swiss central bank that overnight decided to unpeg the Franc and the impact this has on financial (and currency) markets. More than anyone else we realise that regardless of all our work, effort and knowledge even our advanced models, by definition, are and always will be a simplified version of reality. Therefore we apply expert opinion whenever this is called for and always allow clients the opportunity to adjust the scenarios to their own views.
The introduction of the new single scenario set has a number of significant advantages. For starters, you will be able to use the same scenario set for all your different applications. Such as using the same scenario set for a short term asset optimization analysis taking into account the next few months as for a ORSA calculation comprising the next few years. This is much more efficient and provides consistency between the various utilizations that you might have for the scenario set. Furthermore, the models are dynamic which means that new information is continuously added to it. This ensures that the assessment of risk and return stays as close to reality as possible. The scenario set provides insight into the complex relationships between risk factors and moreover takes into account the impact of policy measures – e.g. quantitative easing by central banks – on interest rates, inflation and therefore on return. More insight into the development of risk and return leads to better risk management.