The September 2018 update of the Quarterly Outlook of Ortec Finance shows that the state of the business cycle signals further slowdown. This marks the third consecutive quarter that the business cycle realisation was below prior expectations.

Moreover, we expect elevated market volatility to remain present in the short-term. The risk to the momentum outlook remains skewed to the downside.

Although we see continuing signs of weakness in the business cycle indicator, it is very well possible that the market returns to a more optimistic stance, or that market fundamentals will continue to improve.

We estimate that we currently are in the very early stages of a contraction phase, but there is significant uncertainty around both this estimate and the likely future development of the business cycle.

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The complete September 2018 Quarterly Outlook can be downloaded by filling out the form underneath. For clients a more elaborate version is available which includes risk and return across asset classes, regions and horizons.

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