This research explores the development of a forecast model that predicts the delivery time (initiation to end of construction) of new build projects of housing associations.

Why?

Housing associations have been struggling lately to predict the planning and delivery time of new construction projects, meaning that plans filled out in the dPi are not realized in time. As recent as 2020, AW signals in the Staat van de corporatie sector 2021 that almost 40% of all new build plans are not realized within the time they are predicted to be complete meaning that "investment intentions do not provide insight into future performance" p10.

Outcome

The model indicates that to accurately predict new build investment forecasts, project characteristics need to be included to predict delivery time which is in turn used to forecast financial investments. The model helps to avoid stakeholder (tenant and municipal) disappointments from unrealized plans and helps housing associations avoid financial risks associated with inaccurate inclusion of time in both construction costs and income stream calculations. It also helps supervisory bodies and governments to gauge resources needed to positively deliver new build plans in time.


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