Scenario webinars

Up and coming webinars

More info to be announced.

Past webinars

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q2 2025 - 'How might investors manage ongoing policy uncertainty as the new normal?'

Date: 24th July 2025

Speakers:

• Tom Janssen, Scenario Consultant - Scenario and Asset Valuation
• Patrick Tuijp, Team Lead - Scenario and Asset Valuation

The webinar covered:

• Global markets are increasingly shaped by persistent policy uncertainty. Investors must navigate a complex landscape of diverse and evolving risks—ranging from trade war escalations and geopolitical disruptions to expansionary fiscal policy. Our latest economic outlook examines how the economic environment could unfold amid these challenges.  
• In such radically uncertain conditions, a combination of stochastic and deterministic analysis provides the best quantitative approach to achieve a robust framework for investment decision-making. To this end, we have developed a trade war deterministic stress scenario. This scenario is used to test the resilience of three hypothetical balance sheets: a U.S. endowment fund, an Asian life insurer, and a European pension fund.

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q1 2025 - 'Navigating the chaos in a shifting landscape'

Date: 29th April 2025

Speakers:

• Finn Stijns, Scenario Consultant - Scenario and Asset Valuation
• Sophie Heald, Senior Climate Specialist - Climate Scenarios & Sustainability
• Amrit Summan, Investment Solutions Lead

The webinar covered:

• As global financial markets grapple with the turbulence of recent trade policy upheavals and geopolitical twists, the latest economic outlook dives into the impact of this ever-changing economic terrain.
• 2025 Ortec Finance Climate Scenarios – A brief overview of our proprietary climate scenarios’ annual update, and how the latest improvements can help financial institutions better assess climate risks alongside traditional investment risks.

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q4 2024 - '2025, a year of muted global economic growth?'
Date: 30th January 2025

Speakers:

• Taeke Halsema, Consultant - Scenario and Asset Valuation
• Elwin Molenbroek, Team Leader ALM– Pension Strategy Netherlands

The webinar covered:

• Following a year of monetary normalisation and weakening but resilient growth, the latest economic outlook explores economic prospects for the year ahead and how geopolitical uncertainty, energy costs, regulation and demand may impact growth for 2025.
• Liquidity modeling framework and pacing strategies overview.
• Insights into our pension strategy innovations focused on integrating illiquid assets with multi-objective optimization.

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q3 2024 – ‘First cuts underway - will we avoid recession?'

Date: 29th October 2024

Speakers:

• Joep van der Burg, Scenario & Asset Valuation consultant
• Job van der Wardt, Senior Insurance SAA Expert

The webinar covered:

• The latest economic outlook that discusses the likelihood of avoiding a future recession now that central banks have started to make interest rate cuts globally.
• Introduction to scenario-based machine learning optimization techniques.
• Utilizing this generic approach to optimize the SAA on any complex non-linear ALM objective.

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q2 2024 -'Is the inflation genie back in the bottle?'
Date: 25th July 2024

Speakers:

• Amrit Summan, Investment Solutions Lead
• Stanimir Ivanov, Quantitative Financial Analyst

The webinar covered:

• The latest economic outlook that discusses whether elevated inflation will soon become yesterday’s talk or continue to dominate the economic outlook. 
• The introduction of our new modeling for structured assets, specifically CMBS (commercial-backed mortgage securities) and ABS (asset-backed securities). 
• Insights into the unique characteristics of structured assets that we aim to capture with our modelling solutions. 

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q1 2024 - 'Buy equities at the top?'
Date: 18th April 2024

Speakers:

• Patrick Tuijp, Head of Global Clients Scenarios & Asset Valuation
• Sophie Heald, Senior Climate Specialist, Climate & ESG Solutions

The webinar covered:

• The latest economic outlook that discusses how stocks might perform with higher interest rates, putting pressure on valuations.
• The significance of climate scenario analysis.
• Overview and essential insights from the climate scenarios accessible to our clients.

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q4 2023 - ‘Are we in soft landing territory?’
Date: 18th January 2024

Speakers:

• Hens Steehouwer, Head of Research
• Federico Ramella, Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation

The webinar covered:

• How climate change is exposed to fundamental uncertainty and the challenges this brings for taking climate risk into account in investment decision making.
• Results from a novel climate scenario benchmarking approach and how this helps to improve consistency between traditional risk and return analyses and climate scenario analyses.

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q3 2023 – 'All eyes on interest rates'
Date: 24th October 2023

Speakers:

• Stanimir Ivanov, Quantitative Financial Analyst, Ortec Finance
• Maurits van Joolingen, Expert, Business Development, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• The latest scenario outlook shed light on the expected interest rate developments, its impact on financial markets and the macro-economy as a whole.
• How the private assets strategy module within our software, enables the user to perform a holistic analysis of illiquid portfolios, among others, providing insight in the cash flow implications.
• Practical insights into the functionality supporting the realistic risk and return analysis for private assets strategies.

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q2 2023 - 'The slow grind in defeating inflation'
Date: 20th July 2023

Speakers:

• Jia Yeh, Quantitative Financial Analyst, Ortec Finance
• Vladislav Lyadkov, Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• The latest scenario outlook will shed light on whether equities and credits may continue to do well against the background of moderate growth prospects and persistent inflation.
• An introduction into our newly developed and flexible method to impose views on correlations utilizing the strengths of Monte-Carlo simulation.
• The practical implementation of correlation views into our forward-looking scenarios.

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q1 2023 - 'stuck between high inflation and financial instability'
Date: 20th of April 2023

Speakers:

• Tom Janssen, Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance
• Job van der Wardt, Expert, Insurance Strategy, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• The latest economic outlook that discusses the dilemma of central banks faced with both high core inflation and stresses in the banking system
• A review of the different scenario-based approaches to project insurance liabilities in a full ALM context
• Discussion of pros and cons for these approaches in terms of accuracy and runtime efficiency

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q4 2022
Date: 19th of January 2023

Speakers:

• Patrick Tuijp, Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance
• Marijn Heijmerikx, Quantitative Financial Analyst, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• The latest economic outlook with an assessment of downside risk and upward potential for financial markets
• The risk and return characteristics of Green Bonds and ESG Fixed Income
• Our modelling assumptions for sustainable Fixed Income

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q3 2022
Date: 20th of October 2022

Speakers:

• Gilbert Kruimer, Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance
• Hens Steehouwer, Head of Research, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• The latest economic outlook with an assessment of downside risk and upward potential for financial markets
• How climate risk is captured in the Ortec Finance scenarios
• How economic and climate scenarios can support climate-informed investment decision making

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q2 2022
Date: 21st of July 2022

Speakers:

• Marijn Heijmerikx, Quantitative Financial Analyst, Ortec Finance
• Tom Hazenberg, Senior Consultant Pension Strategy, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• The impact of the latest market conditions on our quarterly outlook
• Will tightening global financial conditions trigger a recession?
• How could stagflation impact pension funds?

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q1 2022
Date: 21st of April 2022

Speakers:

• Hens Steehouwer, Head of Research, Ortec Finance
• Marcel van Dijk, Consultant, Scenario & Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• The impact of the latest market conditions on our quarterly outlook
• What are the chances of the global economy moving into a stagflation scenario?
• A novel approach for constructing stress scenarios and alternative scenario expectations

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Scenario-based valuation of insurance liabilities under IFRS17
Date: 12th of April 2022

Speakers:

• Hens Steehouwer, Head of Research, Ortec Finance
• Alex Boer, Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance
• Sander Dekker, Senior Business Specialist Insurance Strategy, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• The implications of IFRS17 for the valuation of embedded options and guarantees
• How to combine stochastic simulation models with smart modeling of risk-neutral scenarios 
• Case study: turning an ALM model into a valuation machine to value the TVOG in par funds

Watch webinar recording here.

Topic:Quarterly Scenario Webinar Q4 2021
Date: 20th of January 2022

Speakers:

• Patrick Tuijp, Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation
• Sven Herrewijn, Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation
• Russ Bowdrey, Expert, Climate & ESG Solutions

The webinar covered:

• The impact of the latest market conditions on our quarterly outlook
• The potential consequences of the current inflationary pressures as well as their impact on monetary policy
• How we model ESG Leaders and Climate Paris Aligned Equity benchmarks as well as how they behave under different climate pathways compared to the corresponding standard equity benchmarks

Watch webinar recording here.
 

Topic: Smart modeling of risk-neutral scenarios
Date: 23rd November 2021

Speakers:

• Hens Steehouwer, Head of Research, Ortec Finance
• Alex Boer, PhD., Team Leader Solution Engineering Master, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• Smart modeling and calibration choices
• How to achieve robust calibrations
• How to perform sensitivity analysis in an efficient way
• Designing a nested simulation framework

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Phasing out of extraordinary policy support measures
Date: 21st October 2021

Speakers:

• Marijn Heijmerikx, Quantitative Financial Analyst, Ortec Finance
• Erik Hennink, Team Leader Solution Engineering, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• The impact of the latest market conditions on our quarterly outlook

• How we incorporate uncertainty about long-term capital market assumptions and its relevance for investment decision-making
• The potential consequences of tighter monetary policy as well as the phasing-out of Covid-19 related fiscal support measures

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: The return of inflation and the frequency domain toolkit for economic modeling
Date: 22nd July 2021

Speakers:

• Patrick Tuijp, PhD., Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance
• Hens Steehouwer, Head of Research, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• The impact of the changed market conditions in our latest quarterly outlook
• The return of inflation: transitory or permanent?
• How the frequency domain approach helps us capture different correlations over different horizons
• The relevance of the term structure of risk and return for scenario modeling

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Introducing our latest innovation: a credit rating transition module
Date: 22nd April 2021

Speakers:

• Patrick Tuijp, PhD., Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance
• Alex Boer, PhD., Team Leader Solution Engineering Master, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• The impact of the changed market conditions in our latest quarterly outlook
• Our new credit rating transition module that allows you to track individual credits as they migrate through the rating distribution
• How this module opens up the possibility to simulate realistic scenarios for buy-and-hold as well as buy-and-maintain strategies.

Watch webinar recording here.

 

Topic: Long-term Scenario Modeling for Practitioners
Date: 21st January 2021

Speakers:

• Patrick Tuijp, PhD., Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance
• Hens Steehouwer, Head of Research, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• How practitioners, benefitting from academic research, can build and apply scenario models for long-term investment horizons
• How to take into account the many uncertainties of today’s world: e.g. monetary policy, demographic developments, low interest rates, the pandemic and climate risk
• Our latest research insights on long-term economic and Capital Market Assumptions

Watch webinar recording here.

Topic: Q3 Economic Outlook & Mastering the Dimensions of Correlations

Date: 22nd October 2020

Speakers:

• Patrick Tuijp, PhD., Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance
• Hens Steehouwer, Head of Research, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• What the impact is of the changed market conditions on our latest quarterly outlook
• Why a partial approach to correlation modeling does not work and why well-designed and calibrated risk models do work
• How to incorporate different correlations for different time horizons in the same model calibration with the help of trend – cycle decompositions. 

Watch webinar recording here.

Topic: Ortec Finance June 2020 Economic Outlook & Private Assets - An Update on the latest Scenario Models 
Date: 23rd July 2020

Speakers:

• Paul van't Zelfde, Managing Director, Scenarios &Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance
• Hens Steehouwer, Head of Research, Ortec Finance
• Patrick Tuijp, PhD., Expert, Scenarios & Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• What the impact of the changed market conditions are in our latest quarterly outlook.
• Characteristics and stylized facts of private asset investments.
• How to build realistic scenario models for private assets. 

Watch webinar recording here.

Topic: The Impact of the Coronavirus Outbreak on our Scenarios: Ortec Finance March 2020 Outlook
Date: 21st April 2020 

Speakers:

• Paul van't Zelfde, Managing Director, Scenarios &Asset Valuation, Ortec Finance
• Hens Steehouwer, Head of Research, Ortec Finance

The webinar covered:

• What the impact of the changed market conditions is on our scenario projections.
• How our economic views have changed.
• How the overall scenario outlook has changed.

Watch webinar recording here.

Topic: Scenario Based Approaches for Central Banks
Date: 20th March 2020 

Speakers:

• Hens Steehouwer, Head of Research, Ortec Finance

On March 20th, Hens Steehouwer, Head of Research at Ortec Finance presented at the Central Banking National Asset-Liability Management Global virtual conference. You can view the webinar by filling out the form below.

Watch webinar recording here.