Housing markets in a pandemic: Evidence from historical outbreaks
08 February 2022
How do pandemics affect urban housing markets? This paper studies historical outbreaks of the plague in 17th-century Amsterdam and cholera in 19th-century Paris to answer this question.
Based on micro-level transaction data, Marc Franke and Matthijs Korevaar show outbreaks resulted in large declines in house prices, and smaller declines in rent prices. They find particularly large reductions in house prices during the first six months of an epidemic, and in heavily-affected areas. However, these price shocks were only transitory, and both cities quickly reverted to their initial price paths. The findings suggest these two cities were very resilient to major shocks originating from epidemics.
Daily appraisal of commercial real estate a new mixed frequency approach
We present a mixed frequency repeat sales model for commercial real estate, taking into account changes in net operating income between the date of buying and selling the property. Moreover, we relate monthly private market index asset returns to lags, up to 1 year, of daily (REIT) index returns.
A Machine Learning Approach to Price Indices: Applications in Commercial Real Estate
This article presents a model agnostic methodology for producing property price indices. The motivation to develop this methodology is to include non-linear and non-parametric models, such as Machine Learning (ML), in the pool of algorithms to produce price indices.
Ortec Finance 2021 Customer Satisfaction Survey shows very high scores
At Ortec Finance, as part of the processes that we have in place to better understand what our clients think of us, our products, and our services, we conduct an annual customer satisfaction survey in the months of October and November. We are proud to announce that the survey shows very high scores for the fourth year in a row!
Forecasting US Commercial Property Price Indexes Using Dynamic Factor Models
The general purpose of a dynamic factor model (DFM) is to summarize a large number of time series into a few common factors. In this paper Alex van de Minne, Marc Francke and David Geltner explore several DFMs on 80 granular, non-overlapping commercial property price indexes in the US, quarterly from 2001Q1 to 2017Q2.
Commonalities in Private Commercial Real Estate Market Liquidity and Price Index Returns
In this paper Dorinth van Dijk and Marc Francke examine co-movements in private commercial real estate index returns and market liquidity in the US (apartment, office, retail) and for eighteen global cities, using data from Real Capital Analytics over the period 2005–2018.