Our quarterly outlook is based on the Ortec Finance Economic Scenario Generator and offers our perspective on recent developments in the global economy and capital markets and what these mean for the future.
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The June 2021 Quarterly Outlook highlights include:
- In the second quarter of 2021, economies have started to reopen against the background of the accelerated vaccine rollout. On the downside, the rapid spreading of the Delta variant is a source of concern.
- Equity markets reached new all-time highs as investors anticipate a continuation of the economic rebound. Going forward, the Ortec Finance Momentum Indicator signals equity market momentum to fade in the coming year.
- Stronger than anticipated economic growth combined with inflationary pressure, especially from rising commodity prices, worsens the outlook of the Ortec Finance Business Cycle Indicator. This leads to lower expected equity returns and higher credit spreads on a 1-3 year horizon.
- Although we do recognize the risk for higher inflation, in line with central banks, we expect the recent spike in inflation to be transitory as supply chains need time to adjust to excess demand.
- Due to lingering uncertainty about the Delta variant as well as inflation risk, we expect market volatility to remain elevated over the one-year horizon.
Download the June 2021 Quarterly Outlook
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- For clients, a more elaborate version is available which includes risk and return expectations across asset classes, regions and horizons.
Previous Quarterly Outlook
Interested in our previous quarterly outlook? Download the March 2021 Quarterly Outlook here.