Quarterly Outlook: June 2020
Gain expert insights into future economic and financial market developments with the June 2020 Quarterly Outlook of Ortec Finance. Get the latest news and an in-depth analysis of the key drivers of risk and return. The Quarterly Outlook is based on the Ortec Finance Economic Scenario Generator (ESG) and offers our perspective on recent developments in the global economy and capital markets and what these mean for the future.
The June 2020 Quarterly Outlook highlights include:
- Covid-19 and the containment measures led to a deep global recession while in the second quarter financial markets recovered strongly, confidence indicators improved, and volatility declined.
- Supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus, we expect the global economy to set in a U-shaped recovery from the second half of 2020 onwards and expect the recovery to progress at a slower pace in 2021. In line with the expected recovery, our business cycle outlook has improved.
- The coronavirus’ economic impact, however, remains highly uncertain. The major downside risk is a prolonged or stronger impact of the coronavirus on economic activity. A second wave of infection is not unlikely and may slowdown the recovery.
- To serve our clients in the best possible manner during these extraordinary uncertain times, a version of our June 2020 scenarios is available, in which the impact of the business cycle model on the outlook for the years to come is damped by 50%.
Download the June 2020 Quarterly Outlook
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- For clients, a more elaborate version is available which includes risk and return expectations across asset classes, regions and horizons.
Previous Quarterly Outlook
Interested in our previous quarterly outlook? Download the March 2020 Quarterly Outlook here.